Gas storage grew by 77 billion cubic feet last week, but its cushion over the five-year average shrank to 1%. That's the fresh number this week: 3,644 Bcf in the ground as of October 16, 35 Bcf above average, down from a 68 Bcf cushion a week earlier. Henry Hub spot gas, the benchmark price, ended the stretch at $3.10 on October 20 after touching $3.30 on October 15. Here's the honest read: storage is still fine for this winter's budgets, but the margin is thinner than it was, and supplier fixed prices moved both ways this week. Here's what that means for your next contract and what I'd do.
This Week in 30 Seconds
- Storage is still above average, by less: 3,644 Bcf as of October 16, 35 Bcf (1.0%) above the five-year average and 152 Bcf (4.0%) below last year, after a 77 Bcf build. Last week's cushion was 68 Bcf (2.0%).
- Gas prices stayed above $3: Henry Hub was $3.10 on October 20, in a range of $3.10 to $3.30 since October 7, up from $3.03 on October 6.
- Supplier fixed prices moved both ways: business prices at the same term fell in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Maryland and rose in New England (see the Rate Watch). Spot gas is only one input.
- Electricity is the bigger story for PJM states: EIA's October outlook expects PJM wholesale power prices to average 41% higher in 2026.
- Defaults keep moving: Rhode Island's business default is approved to climb every month through January, and Pennsylvania's major utilities reset their defaults on December 1.
- My take: if your contract ends in the next six months, get quotes now. A thinner storage cushion is a reason to stop waiting, not a reason to panic.
What This Means for You
- Businesses and nonprofits with a contract ending in the next six months: the storage cushion is smaller than last week, and nobody can promise where fixed prices go next. This week they fell in some states and rose in others (see the Rate Watch). The useful comparison is your current price against a real quote, not against last week's posted price.
- Anyone on a utility default price: check the Price to Compare on your next bill, then compare it with a fixed offer. Our Price to Compare by utility page has the official figures we track.
- Schools and local governments: if your board has to approve the purchase, get it on the next agenda now. Offers can expire within days, and winter is the wrong time to wait on a meeting. Here's how to set that up.
- Larger, demand-metered accounts: watch capacity costs as well as energy. In PJM, capacity prices have climbed sharply since 2024 (here's what happened), and EIA now expects PJM wholesale power to be up 41% this year.
- Households: in Ohio, the defaults are posted and fixed prices are below them. In Illinois, the winter default is lower, so there's no rush. In Rhode Island, the default is moving the other way.
One honest caveat: nobody can promise where prices go next. Storage is still above average nationally, and gas could just as easily firm up or ease off. That uncertainty is exactly why a fixed price has value: it turns a guess into a number you can budget.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
| Date | Henry Hub spot ($/MMBtu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 5 | $2.96 | |
| Tue, Oct 6 | $3.03 | +$0.07 |
| Wed, Oct 7 | $3.16 | +$0.13 |
| Thu, Oct 8 | $3.24 | +$0.08 |
| Fri, Oct 9 | $3.10 | -$0.14 |
| Mon, Oct 12 | $3.10 | $0.00 |
| Tue, Oct 13 | $3.14 | +$0.04 |
| Wed, Oct 14 | $3.22 | +$0.08 |
| Thu, Oct 15 | $3.30 | +$0.08 |
| Fri, Oct 16 | $3.22 | -$0.08 |
| Mon, Oct 19 | $3.28 | +$0.06 |
| Tue, Oct 20 | $3.10 | -$0.18 |
Source: EIA, Henry Hub natural gas spot price, latest data posted October 21, 2026 (through October 20). EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts an average of $3.48 for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027.
Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in U.S. storage was 3,644 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, October 16, 2026, up 77 Bcf for the week. That is 35 Bcf (1.0%) above the five-year average and 152 Bcf (4.0%) below last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This is the latest weekly report; the next one is due October 29.
| Region | Stocks (Bcf) | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| East | 900 | +16 |
| Midwest | 1,065 | +28 |
| Mountain | 257 | +2 |
| Pacific | 297 | +3 |
| South Central | 1,125 | +28 |
| Total | 3,644 | +77 |
Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released October 22, 2026. Regions may not sum exactly to the total because of independent rounding. The East region, where many of our Pennsylvania, Ohio, Maryland, and New England customers sit, was 900 Bcf, 2.7% above its five-year average.
What EIA expects for winter: its October outlook says homes that heat with natural gas are expected to spend less than last winter, while electrically heated homes are expected to spend slightly more. It assumes temperatures similar to last winter and the 10-year average. Heating-oil homes, mostly in the Northeast, face prices more than 30% higher. And for wholesale electricity, EIA expects the 2026 U.S. average to be $52 per MWh, 11% above 2025, with PJM up 41%. If your supply contract rides the market, that's the number to watch.
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released October 6, 2026 (the latest edition). Next release: November 10.
Default Prices to Know
- Rhode Island (up): the commercial variable price climbs month by month, as approved by the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission:
| Month | Commercial variable price (per kWh) |
|---|---|
| October | 13.896¢ |
| November | 14.702¢ |
| December | 17.502¢ |
| January | 19.654¢ |
Source: Rhode Island Energy's Last Resort Service tariff (effective October 1, 2026; approved by the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission on September 24, 2026).
- Pennsylvania: PPL, PECO, Met-Ed, Penelec, Penn Power, and West Penn Power next change their default prices on December 1, 2026. See our Pennsylvania guide and Price to Compare by utility page.
- Maryland homes: October default supply prices (supply plus transmission) as published by the Maryland Office of People's Counsel and the Potomac Edison tariff. See our Maryland guide.
| Utility | Home default price (per kWh) |
|---|---|
| BGE | 15.284¢ |
| Pepco | 14.782¢ |
| Delmarva Power | 13.162¢ |
| Potomac Edison | 10.605¢ |
| SMECO | 11.607¢ |
Source: Maryland Office of People's Counsel, October 2026 figures; The Potomac Edison Company Maryland tariff, Schedule R. Checked October 11, 2026.
- Ohio homes: the October default prices are posted by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The next change is January 1, 2027. See our Ohio guide.
- Illinois (lower for winter): Ameren Illinois's residential Price to Compare is 10.441¢ per kWh for the first 800 kWh through May 31, 2027, and ComEd's is 10.103¢ (Plug In Illinois). See our Illinois guide.
What I'd Do This Week
- Find your contract end date. If it's within six months, start shopping now. Our free Energy Contract Checkup takes 10 minutes.
- Compare your price with this week's Rate Watch, including the one market where the default is the better deal right now.
- Get a real quote. Posted prices are a starting point; quotes for your actual account can come in above or below them.
We do the shopping for free. The supplier you choose pays us, and if nothing beats what you pay now, we'll tell you. Click below to start, or send a photo of your bill.
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FAQ
Why did fixed prices move both ways if gas storage is above average?
Supplier fixed prices reflect more than daily spot gas: forward power and gas markets, supplier costs, and demand all matter, and they differ by region. Storage being above average is helpful context, not a promise that prices will fall.
Should I lock a fixed price now?
If your contract ends within six months or you're on a utility default price, it's worth getting quotes now. Prices can move either way, so compare real offers for your account before deciding.
Why does EIA expect PJM power prices to rise?
EIA's October 2026 outlook says the 2026 average wholesale price in PJM is expected to be 41% higher than in 2025, driven largely by extreme weather earlier in the year, including a winter storm and a hot summer.
What is Henry Hub?
Henry Hub, in Louisiana, is the benchmark price point for U.S. natural gas. Regional prices, especially in the Northeast in winter, can trade well above it.
How often is this update published?
Weekly. Each update uses the latest public data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the utility commissions in our markets.