Natural gas slipped about 5% this week. Henry Hub spot gas went from $3.18 on September 29 to $3.03 on October 6, after touching $2.90 on October 2. That matters to your electric bill too, because natural gas sets the price of much of the electricity in PJM and New England. Here's the honest read: it's a pause, not a trend. Here's what it means for your next contract and what I'd do this week.
This Week in 30 Seconds
- Gas prices eased: Henry Hub fell from $3.18 to $3.03 per MMBtu over the week, with a low of $2.90 on October 2.
- Storage is healthy: 3,415 Bcf as of September 25, 79 Bcf (2.4%) above the five-year average, after a 64 Bcf build.
- Electricity is the bigger story for PJM states: EIA's October outlook expects PJM wholesale power prices to average 41% higher in 2026.
- Defaults are set for winter: Ohio's October default prices are now posted, and Rhode Island's business default keeps climbing into January.
- My take: if your contract ends in the next six months, get quotes now. Fixed prices dipped this week, but nobody can promise they stay down.
What This Means for You
- Businesses and nonprofits with a contract ending in the next six months: fixed supplier prices tend to follow wholesale gas. This week, same-term business prices came down 0.20¢ to 0.38¢ per kWh at PPL, Penn Power, Delmarva, Penelec, and Ohio Edison (see the Rate Watch). That's a better entry point than a week ago, with no promise it lasts.
- Anyone on a utility default price: check the Price to Compare on your next bill, then compare it with a fixed offer. Our Price to Compare by utility page has the official figures we track.
- Schools and local governments: if your board has to approve the purchase, get it on the next agenda now. Offers can expire within days, and winter is the wrong time to wait on a meeting. Here's how to set that up.
- Larger, demand-metered accounts: watch capacity costs as well as energy. In PJM, capacity prices have climbed sharply since 2024 (here's what happened), and EIA now expects PJM wholesale power to be up 41% this year.
- Households: in Ohio, the new defaults are posted and fixed prices are below them. In Illinois, the winter default is lower, so there's no rush. In Rhode Island, it's the opposite.
One honest caveat: nobody can promise where prices go next. Storage is healthy nationally, and gas could just as easily firm back up. That uncertainty is exactly why a fixed price has value: it turns a guess into a number you can budget.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices
| Date | Henry Hub spot ($/MMBtu) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Sept 29 | $3.18 | |
| Wed, Sept 30 | $3.02 | -$0.16 |
| Thu, Oct 1 | $3.00 | -$0.02 |
| Fri, Oct 2 | $2.90 | -$0.10 |
| Mon, Oct 5 | $2.96 | +$0.06 |
| Tue, Oct 6 | $3.03 | +$0.07 |
Source: EIA, Henry Hub natural gas spot price, released October 7, 2026. EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts an average of $3.48 for 2026 and $3.16 for 2027.
Natural Gas Storage
Working gas in U.S. storage was 3,415 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of Friday, September 25, 2026, up 64 Bcf for the week. That is 79 Bcf (2.4%) above the five-year average and 138 Bcf (3.9%) below last year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This is the latest weekly report; the next one is due October 8.
| Region | Stocks (Bcf) | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|
| East | 840 | +25 |
| Midwest | 984 | +25 |
| Mountain | 248 | +4 |
| Pacific | 295 | +3 |
| South Central | 1,048 | +7 |
| Total | 3,415 | +64 |
Source: EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, released October 1, 2026.
What EIA expects for winter: its October outlook says homes that heat with natural gas are expected to spend less than last winter, while electrically heated homes are expected to spend slightly more. It assumes temperatures similar to last winter and the 10-year average. Heating-oil homes, mostly in the Northeast, face prices more than 30% higher. And for wholesale electricity, EIA expects the 2026 U.S. average to be $52 per MWh, 11% above 2025, with PJM up 41%. If your supply contract rides the market, that's the number to watch.
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, released October 6, 2026. Next release: November 10.
Default Prices to Know
- Ohio homes: the October default prices are now posted by the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. The next change is January 1, 2027. See our Ohio guide.
| Utility | Home default price (per kWh) |
|---|---|
| AES Ohio | 10.860¢ |
| AEP Ohio | 10.190¢ |
| Duke Energy Ohio | 10.490¢ |
| Ohio Edison | 11.070¢ |
| The Illuminating Company | 11.240¢ |
| Toledo Edison | 11.260¢ |
Source: PUCO Energy Choice Ohio, Apples to Apples, residential Price to Compare, checked October 2, 2026.
- Rhode Island (up): the commercial variable price climbs month by month, as approved by the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission:
| Month | Commercial variable price (per kWh) |
|---|---|
| October | 13.896¢ |
| November | 14.702¢ |
| December | 17.502¢ |
| January | 19.654¢ |
Source: Rhode Island Energy's Last Resort Service tariff (effective October 1, 2026; approved by the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission on September 24, 2026).
- Illinois (lower for winter): Ameren Illinois's residential Price to Compare is 10.441¢ per kWh for the first 800 kWh through May 31, 2027, and ComEd's is 10.103¢ (Plug In Illinois). See our Illinois guide.
What I'd Do This Week
- Find your contract end date. If it's within six months, start shopping now. Our free Energy Contract Checkup takes 10 minutes.
- Compare your price with this week's Rate Watch, including the one market where the default is the better deal right now.
- Get a real quote. Posted prices are a starting point; quotes for your actual account are often lower.
We do the shopping for free. The supplier you choose pays us, and if nothing beats what you pay now, we'll tell you. Click below to start, or send a photo of your bill.
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FAQ
Why did natural gas prices come down this week?
EIA's daily price data shows the move but not a single cause. Gas prices respond to weather forecasts, storage, production, and export demand. What matters for you is that fixed supplier prices tend to follow wholesale gas.
Should I lock a fixed price now?
If your contract ends within six months or you're on a utility default price, it's worth getting quotes now. Prices can move either way, so compare real offers for your account before deciding.
Why does EIA expect PJM power prices to rise?
EIA's October 2026 outlook says the 2026 average wholesale price in PJM is expected to be 41% higher than in 2025, driven largely by extreme weather earlier in the year, including a winter storm and a hot summer.
What is Henry Hub?
Henry Hub, in Louisiana, is the benchmark price point for U.S. natural gas. Regional prices, especially in the Northeast in winter, can trade well above it.
How often is this update published?
Weekly. Each update uses the latest public data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the utility commissions in our markets.